2013; Muhire & Ahmed 2015). To encompass the system, it needsan understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, andTrade Winds. 2013). The trend of increasing maximum temperature is stronger than the minimum temperature. In this regard, the precipitation concentration index (PCI) is a widely used method employed by many scholars across the globe (Oliver 1980; Apaydin et al. The details of these stations have already been presented in Table2. In the study area, June is the sowing period for barley and wheat crops. Elements and Controls of Weather and Climate, 5.3. 2009). Based on PCI results, rainfall during the summer and spring seasons is moderately distributed as compared to annual and winter season rainfall. The long-term rainfall trend was assessed monthly, seasonally i.e. The focus of this study is to investigate the spatiotemporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in Alwero watershed in the western part of Ethiopia using a dense network of 4 4 km gridded data (558 points) reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite records which spatially covers the watershed. The annual rainfall distribution is also variable in time and space. About 60 percent of the rain is in autumn and 40 percent in spring. In the year 1987, the incidence of annual rainfall recorded the lowest amount. Spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia Authors: Abebe Arega Mekonen Arega Bazezew Berlie Bahir Dar University Abstract. However, inEthiopia, as it is a highland country, tropical temperature conditions have no full spatialcoverage. Overall, the five years moving average trend of average annual temperature of the study watershed is increasing by about 0.95 C. 2005). Ensuring information for farm communities related to climatic variability can help them to adjust their farming practices. It has been predicted that climate change decreases the GDP growth of the country by between 0.5 and 2.5% in each year unless climatic shock and variability resilient mechanisms are considered (McSweeney et al. The area is characterized by diverse topographic conditions such as mountainous and dissected terrain with steep slopes. In the rainfall distribution during belg and kiremit it was found that there was a moderate concentration of precipitation throughout the seasons, which shows that there is no uniform distribution, whereas during the bega season a significant change in the PCI was shown, thus the concentration of precipitation is increasing and rainfall has become more erratic. The Geologic Processes: Endogenic and Exogenic Forces, 2.3. Results of the ensembles for CMIP3 and CMIP5 are generally indistinguishable regarding projected impacts on hydrology. Additionally, studies of rainfall and temperature variations in larger areas would in general be of little use for local level agricultural production (Gebre et al. Rainfall Regions of EthiopiaBased on rainfall distribution, both in space and time, four rainfall regions can be identifiedin Ethiopia and the Horn. Simulations using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model indicate that a drier and warmer future will shift the location of snow line to higher elevations and reduce the number of days with precipitation falling as snow. Mean annual temperature varies from over 30 0Cin the tropicallowlands to less than 100c at very high altitudes.The Bale Mountains are among highlands where lowest mean annual temperatures are recorded.The highest mean maximum temperature in the country is recorded in the Afar Depression.Moreover, lowlands of north-western, western and south-eastern Ethiopian experiences meanmaximum temperatures of more than 300C.Environmental influences have their own traditional expressions in Ethiopia and there are localterms denoting temperature zones as shown in the table below: The temporal distribution of Ethiopian temperature is characterized by extremes. Following the directness of the Sun inMarch and September around the equator, the ITCZ shifts towards equator. The average rainfallvaries from less than 500 to 1,000 mm.iv. Therefore, in order to know the yields, annual rainfall is less important for prediction. 2016). Let X1, X2, X3. The convergence of Northeast Trade winds and the Equatorial Westerlies forms theITCZ, which is a low-pressure zone.The inter-annual oscillation of the surface position of theITCZ causes a variation in the Wind flow patterns over Ethiopia and the Horn. 33 days from submission to first decision on average. The correlation between rainfall during the months of MaySeptember and crops has a positive relationship, except in the cases of beans, peas and chickpeas, which are inversely correlated with rainfall during the month of June. The coefficient of variation is higher during the rainfall in the bega and belg seasons than the rainy season (kiremit rainfall season), as shown in Table2. Time series of all MMA precipitation indices exhibit significant increasing trends over the 19012099 period. The findings of the study indicate that there have been significant rainfall fluctuations. Therefore, community-based soil and water conservation practices help the communities to diversify their livelihood activities. Global warming has become the greatest barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goal with respect to decreasing food insecurity. Location, Shape and Size of Ethiopia and the Horn, CHAPTER TWO THE GEOLOGY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 2.2. In the years between 1981 and 1984, the annual total rainfall was far lower than the mean long-term rainfall. Rock and Mineral Resources of Ethiopia, CHAPTER THREE THE TOPOGRAPHY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 3.2. The guidelines for interpretation are presented in Table1. Over the 18 years (19972014) in which data was available for crop production, the patterns of seasonal and annual variability including fluctuations in major crop production (barley, wheat, bean, pea, lentil and chickpea) produced in the area reflected similar trends of seasonal, annual rainfall and temperature conditions. Tesfa Worku, Deepak Khare, S. K. Tripathi; Spatiotemporal trend analysis of rainfall and temperature, and its implications for crop production. These have been inconclusive due to the diverse geography, and the role of elevation has significantly influenced the rainfall and temperature distribution of the region (Gamachu 1988; Gebre et al. Because of the rainfall-dependent farming practice, farmers are always worried about the duration and intensity of rainfall. Results from the spatial analysis show that the greatest increase in the number of consecutive dry days is around Siavonga, Kasama and Isoka, up to the border of Zambia and Tanzania. The results revealed that the magnitude of significantly increasing trend and variability was observed in mean annual rainfall for DB station (at 0.28 mm/year and 1.07%). Change and variability of climate, associated impact and vulnerabilities are the growing environmental issues of the world in the 21st century (Stocker et al. This cereal crop shows stronger correlation with the kiremit rains. The region experiences most of its rain during summer (kiremt), while some placesalso receive spring (Belg) rain. By continuing to use our website, you are agreeing to, Journal of Water, Sanitation & Hygiene for Development, Time series trend analysis of temperature and rainfall in lake Tana Sub-basin, Ethiopia, Potential impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture of a semi-arid basin in Jordan, Distribution of the serial correlation coefficient, Evaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution and concentration of precipitation: a case for the region of Southeastern Anatolia Project, Turkey, Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for rice cultivation in Northeast Thailand, Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Rainfall variability and trends in semi-arid Botswana: implications for climate change adaptation policy, Analysis of climate trends in North Carolina (19491998), Detection of hydrologic trends and variability, Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia, Estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture in low-income countries: household level evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Decadal climatic variability, trends, and future scenarios for the North China Plain, Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 19512002, Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. In Ethiopia, the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature varies widely (Regassa et al. Both duration and amount ofrainfall decreases as we move from southwest to north and eastwards. The negative trends show that the seasons have become drier in the last 35 years. NB: Kiremit: Summer; Belg: Spring; Bega: winter. Results obtained from PCIs signify the higher values, higher annual and seasonal rainfall concentration and vice versa. Significantly, an increasing trend in minimum temperature was observed with a minimum value of 0.005 C/year in GIN station to a maximum value of 0.12 C/year in DBS station. Future trends are assessed using the ensemble mean of eight regional climate model data under two emission scenarios, provided by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). The magnitude of the linear trends is estimated using the Sen's slope estimator and Mann-Kendall's test is performed to check the statistical significance of the trends. The variation for the belg season is presented in Figure2. Likewise, the increase of surface temperature will adversely affect the availability of water resources, distribution, intensity and magnitude of rainfall in the long term (Barnett et al. The aim of this study was to evaluate climate variability and characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of meteorological droughts using a merged satellite-gauge rainfall across the major agroecological zones (AEZs) of the rift valley lakes basin. Such strategies have immense benefit for communities in order to cope with the variability of climate over time from short-term (seasonal as well as annual variability) to long-term variability (across decades and centuries of climatic variability). Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. Therefore, appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies have to be included in the development agenda to reverse the trend. Conversely, the southeasterlies from the Indian Ocean provide rain to the highlands ofSomalia, and to the central and southeastern lowlands and highlands of Ethiopia. Journal of Water and Climate Change 1 December 2019; 10 (4): 799817. In administrative terms, it is located in Basona Worena District, in the North Showa zone of Amhara regional state (Figure1), situated 180 km northeast of the capital city, Addis Ababa. The wetness of this region is particularly due to the prepotency of moist aircurrents of equatorial Westerlies called the Guinea Monsoons. During this time, thecentral highlands, southeastern highlands and lowlands receives rainfall as the south easterliesbring moist winds. Is it warming or cooling? 2008; Subash et al. However, studies focusing on Zambia are still limited and future climate variability is poorly understood. Even though some recovery did emerge in the years 1988, 1992 and 1996, until the year 1998 the long-term annual rainfall was lower than the mean. Data and Methods 3.1. 2013; Irannezhad et al. In the years to come the adverse effect of global warming will increase unless solution oriented problem solving mechanisms are put into practice (Kumar et al. Kiremit season rainfall revealed a significantly increasing trend of about 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% at DB station and the magnitude of significantly decreasing trend was 0.90 mm/year and 16.20% at SD station. However, it hasno significant coverage compared to other seasons. Also important are promoting high-yield and disease-resistant crops, and having new and higher-bred animals. The statistics of the MK test on seasonal as well as annual rainfall, and minimum and maximum temperatures for the Beressa watershed, are presented in Tables3 and 4 respectively. All crop production shows considerably high correlation with maximum temperature and stronger correlation with barley, while in the case of minimum temperature, poor correlation was observed for all crops. For most developing countries of the world, agriculture is the basis of the economy. Summary of annual and seasonal rainfall, coefficient of variation and PCI. 3.1 Spatial distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia. Spring (March, April and May)In this season, the noonday sun is shining directly on the equator while shifting north from south.The shift of the ITCZ, results in longer days and more direct solar radiation providing warmerweather for the northern world. It identifies regions that are experiencing particularly severe climate change impacts. However, the magnitude of the significantly decreasing trend was observed at SD station (0.90 mm/year and 16.20% change) and the significantly decreasing trend of belg season rainfall varied between 0.12 mm/year and 10.00% at GIN station to a significantly increasing trend of 0.40 mm/year and 30.00% at DB station. Therefore, long-term analysis of climatic trends has been used to characterize the situations (Singh et al. During this period,the Northeast Trade Winds carrying non-moisture-laden dominates the region. However, some parts of thecountry enjoy a temperate climate. In general, these future projections point towards increases in summertime temperatures and modifications in precipitation across both regions. Five years moving average temperature (19802014). Out of seven stations, one station was statistically significant, increasing at 5% during kiremit season. Therefore, it is pertinent for decision-makers to develop suitable adaptation and mitigating measures to combat climate change in the Basin. Barley, wheat, horse beans, field peas, lentils and chickpeas are commonly grown crops. This development mainly happens in July in Ethiopia and the Horn causingvariability and seasonality.The ITCZ shifts towards south of equator (Tropic of Capricorn) in January. Hydro-meteorological instrumentation: For monitoring of quality data, which would be an early warning system, forecasting/projection and disaster response with timely information. The minimum and maximum temperatures have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. The mean annual temperature varied between 13 and 15.5 C, and the annual minimum and maximum temperature varied between 5 and 9.5 C, respectively. The reduction in precipitation is projected to be steepest over Northwestern Province and lessens southwards. Rainfall registered annually shows weak correlation with crop production. Precipitation projections indicate increased mean precipitation with more frequent extreme rainfall during monsoon season in the EH region, and a wetter cold season in the WH region. Seasonal or Temporal VariabilitiesWhat winds bring summer rainfall for Ethiopian highlands?The rainfall is highly variable both in amount and distribution across regions and seasons.The seasonal and annual rainfall variations are results of the macro-scale pressure systemsand monsoon flows which are related to the changes in the pressure systems discussed in theprevious sections of this chapter. This is because the temperature and the amount of energy reaching the surface isdirectly related with the directness of the sun.The direction of rain bearing winds (leeward or windward side) also determines the temperaturevariations in mountainous regions. Correlation between crop production, and rainfall and temperature (19972014). The minimum and maximum temperature have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively.. 2010 ). Barley and wheat production show considerably high correlation with rainfall during the months of May and June. Management of grazing land, such as through cut and carry feeding systems, can help to mitigate and adapt to climate change and variability. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. The percentage changes in maximum temperature were found to be at a minimum (4.00%) and maximum (37.60%) in the GIN and ENW stations respectively. Five years moving average rainfall (19802014). Spatiotemporal distribution and the characteristics of the air temperature of a river source region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environ Monit Assess. Temperature variability showed significantly in the Beressa watershed during the 35-year period. The shift takes place when the trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies. Here are the average temperatures. It is shown that the MT-CLIM meteorological algorithms used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, when driven by daily T min , T max , and precipitation (a configuration used in numerous published studies), do not preserve the original global model's humidity trends. However, after 1999 and onwards, recovery in the long-term average rainfall emerged higher than the average mean, except for the drier conditions in 2002 and 2013 which were lower than the long-term mean. How can we respond to the changing climate? During these seasons, rainfall is more highly variable than the main rainy season of the area. The details of these seven stations are presented in Table2. Many researchers have undertaken trend analysis studies of the climate in some other parts of Ethiopia (Addisu et al. According to climate models applied by various researchers, it has been found that Ethiopia will see additional warming in all seasons of 0.72.3 C by the 2020s and 1.42.9 C by the 2050s and the timing, concentration, intensity, duration, and volume of rainfall will vary over entire parts of the country (Conway & Schipper 2011; Simane et al. 2012; Fazzini et al. The line connecting the fixed average is known as averagely moving. (2011), adaptation strategies are an important mechanism for managing climatic change and variability. Generally, as can be seen from Figure3, there has been a high increase in overall temperature, which may result in a decrease in productivity and food insecurity. The study area encompasses six . Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. Mixed crop-livestock is the production system of the area and is perhaps the only source of livelihood for the majority of the population. 2005). RH trends along the coast have a weak negative bias due to neglect of the ocean's moderating influence. Soil management: Soil erosion and degradation reduces crop productivity for traditional farming practices (particularly for mountainous area like the Beressa watershed), as erosion and degradation occurs at a higher rate than fertile soil formation. The minimum temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale. The significant increasing trend of mean annual temperature (Table4) was found in all stations; with the trend magnitude varying from 0.03 to 0.14 C/year respectively. Winter (December, January and February)In winter, the overhead sun is far south of equator. Figure 1. The problem is high in developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the majority of the population live on rainfed agriculture. : Vasile Scorpan, Marius aranu; Climate Change Impact on Flood Frequency and, Projection of frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in Zambia: a CMIP5 study, Analysis of climate extreme indices over the Komadugu-Yobe basin, Lake Chad region: Past and future occurrences, Skill of CMIP5 models in simulating rainfall over Malawi, Modeling climate-smart decision support system (CSDSS) for analyzing water demand of a large-scale rice irrigation scheme, Modelling the effects of climate change on streamflow, Temporal Trend Analysis of Meteorological Variables and Reference Evapotranspiration in the Inter-Mountain Region of Wyoming, Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Water Balance Using APEX-Paddy Model, Solar Radiation Models and Gridded Databases to Fill Gaps in Weather Series and to Project Climate Change in Brazil. Observed Data Gridded rainfall and temperature data were gathered from CenTrends Great Horn of Africa v1 and CRU . 2014). The magnitude of the significantly increasing trend of mean annual rainfall of 0.28 mm/year and 1.07% (DB station) was recorded, whereas a significantly decreasing trend of mean annual rainfall was observed with the values of 8.62 mm/year and 27.88% (HG station). Water harvesting is particularly important for less rainy seasons and integrated water management, and will provide supplementary irrigation during deficits. Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability, Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia, Future Changes in Water Supply and Demand for Las Vegas Valley: A System Dynamic Approach based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Projections, Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach, Performance Evaluation and Comparison of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Datasets over the Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia, Effect of projected climate change on potential evapotranspiration in the semiarid region of central India, Simulating Streamflow in Response to Climate Change in The Upper Ewaso Ngiro Catchment, Kenya. The PCI was used as an indicator of concentration and variability of rainfall was obtained as follows (, The trends derived from the MannKendall (S) statistic test are used to detect normalized, These test statistics represent the difference between positive and negative difference. Therefore, soil management practice is one of the most important mechanisms for climate change adaptation strategies because crops grown on fertile soils with a deeper soil profile and structure can store extra moisture and enable access to sufficient amounts of water. Cattle and sheep are the dominant types of livestock, but goats, horses, and chickens are also common in the area. The changes in the mean of hydrologic states and fluxes by the end of the 21st century are statistically robust, whereas changes in the variance are not found to be statistically significant. Annual total precipitation significantly reduces while the frequency of exceedance of the 95th and 99th percentile thresholds increases significantly. The temporal variabilities of rainfall are characterized by;i. However, in the belg season during the period 19802014 the five years' average moving annual and seasonal rainfall was considerably variable. The spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature distribution are presented in Figures4 and 5 respectively. Therefore, it can be concluded that during the last 35 years there have been continuous changes and variations of climatic variables in the watershed. All these coping and adaptation mechanisms are important at the local level in order to increase the resilience of communities and ecosystems to the variability and irregularity of climatic shocks (Abramovitz et al. In the observations, warm spell duration, warm day-, and warm night frequencies exhibit statistically significant positive trends. Topographic map of the Ziway Lake Basin. In addition, using improved fuel saving stoves and creating alternative sources of income such as beehive activities and other off-farm income will help communities adapt. Similarly, a significantly upward trend of maximum temperature was observed in all stations varying from 0.023 C/year and 4.00% in GIN station with a maximum value of 0.21 C/year and 37.60% in ENW station. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. (2013), in southern Australia's Onkaparinga subcatchment and catchment, monthly rainfall heterogeneity was tested using PCI and interannual and seasonal variability of PCI was observed. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Rainfall Rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. Significantly, the increasing long-term annual minimum and maximum temperature during the study periods indicates that it is more likely this would contribute to the increase of mean annual temperature. The minimum temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale. In the tropics, the daily range of temperature is higher and theannual range is small, whereas the reverse is true in the temperate latitudes. 2015). The aim of the study was to examine the spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the northeast highlands of Ethiopia. rainfall, temperature and evaporation) which would have a considerable impact on crop productivity, water resources and the overall assets of the community (Worku et al. 2012). The annual minimum and maximum rainfall is 698.5 and 1083.3 mm, respectively. Our study provides a novel overview of expected climate trends in Zambia, which can act as guidelines for strategic planning of flood and drought prevention. As a result, they cover different past and future time periods, and information is presented at different levels of regional aggregation. The monthly rainfall data are for 132 points of 10 10 km grids reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite observations, which cover the period between 1983 and 2013. It builds on, among others, on the recommendations of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, but a substantial amount of information that became available afterwards has also been included.While this study is not meant to be a comprehensive overview of all aspects of climate change impact on the RMs economy it does reflect the breadth and depth of researches that had been done in the RM to date, and it provides a link between a global phenomenon and the sectors development issues facing the country. The region is divided in to dry and wet summer rainfall regions.Hence, the wet corresponds to the area having rainfall of 1,000 mm or more. Tmean, the mean annual temperature; Tmin, minimum annual temperature; Tmax, maximum annual temperature. Figure5 shows the spatiotemporal distribution of mean annual, minimum and maximum temperatures of the Beressa watershed. According to Al-Bakri et al. For the kiremit (summer season), the main rainfall source is the northward oscillation of ITCZ and the development of high-pressure systems along the southern Atlantic as well as South Indian Oceans. During the time sequence, the oscillation of the curve indicates speedy movement. Such studies ignored the localized trends of rainfall and temperature, particularly in most highlands of Ethiopia. 2016). Months in summer gainhighest rainfall whereas the winter months receive the reduced amount. Another study by Di Falco et al. Therefore, depending on the historical trend of rainfall variability and prolonged temperature increase, appropriate coping and adaptation strategies need to be encouraged. The CHIRPS was developed by the Climate Hazards Group (CHG) at the University of California (Knapp et al. Spatiotemporal Distribution of RainfallRainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. The annual average temperature of the area is 19.7 C. The magnitude of the decreasing trend was found to be 0.06 mm/year and 7.50% in GIN station, 0.05 mm/year and 8.80% at SD station, 0.11 mm/year and 12.70% at HG station, 0.13 mm/year and 29.00% change at SH station, 0.19 mm/year and 53.00% at DB station, 0.19 mm/year and 35.00% and 0.20 mm/year and 56.40% change at DBS station. Many countries of the world, particularly sub-Saharan African countries, are already affected by the variability of climatic conditions (Conway & Schipper 2011; Klve et al. For more than 70% of the world's population, the primary source of their livelihood has originated from weather sensitive agriculture (Suarez et al. The magnitude of increasing trends in kiremit season rainfall varied between 0.33 mm/year and a percentage change of 6.13% (DBS station) to 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% (DB). As already explained. The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. Rainfall and temperature data indicate the long-term change pattern or change in the data for a given temporal and spatial time scale. Annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature are influenced by the variability of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which causes interannual rainfall variability over Ethiopia. According to a report made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Parry 2007; Pachauri et al. Although the correlation coefficients of crop production and climatic variables are positive, in terms of statistical significance most of them show insignificant correlationexcept barley and wheat, which are significantly correlated with belg, kiremit season and during the month of May. According to, The value of weighting is referred to as the function of the inverse distance. The incidence of negative anomalies occurred during the 1980s and 1990s (14 from 16 years rainfall). At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of. We used 12-member ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate climate-attributed changes in the hydrology of the Mataquito river basin in central Chile, South America. Barley, bean and chickpea show significant correlation with maximum temperature. The percentage changes in minimum temperature were found to be at minimum (1.90%) and maximum (52.40%) in GIN and DBS stations, respectively. Therefore, there were no gaps in the data series. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. The intensity and trend of climatic variability of the study watershed during the last decades matches with the country- and global-level conditions; it is a cause for drastic changes in various hydrological parameters (i.e. Improving awareness about climatic variability and its adverse implications for their environment enables farmers to modify their resources and management practices and make efficient use of available water for better crop production. Likewise, as presented in Table2, the distribution of annual rainfall has shown to be very low with high PCI. The spatial distribution pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall for the Beressa watershed is shown in Figure4. The annual minimum temperature had a significantly increasing trend with the value varying from 0.005 C/year and 1.90% in GIN station to 0.12 C/year and 52.40% in the DBS station. During the belg (small rainy) season the subdivision indicates a slightly increasing rainfall trend and the bega season (dry season) shows a negative trend, as already presented in Figure2. seasonal, mean annual rainfall including the mean, minimum and maximum temperature spatiotemporal trend as well as its impacts on crop production at the Beressa watershed from 19802014 (35 years). Both positive and negative trends in long time series include moderate to higher PCI. 2014). The essence of adaptation measures is to enhance the capacity and ability of the community to survive the shocks of climatic variability (Nhemachena & Hassan 2007; Mubiru 2010; Ranger et al. Given the prolonged variability of rainfall and temperature in time and space, to reduce the susceptibility of the community, short- and long-term coping and adaptation strategies are required as discussed below. In this study, we analyse global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate the qualitative aspects of change and trends in temperature and precipitation indices. This is particularly the case for the local community, whose economy is susceptible to variability and the erratic nature of rainfall and water shortage; recurrent drought is a common phenomenon. The average annual aerial rainfall of the Beressa watershed is 891 mm, with a coefficient variation of 30.6% and standard deviation of 227 mm. Controlled grazing: Intensive, permanent and continuous grazing facilitate erosion and loss of fertile soil, resulting in low productivity and further shortages of grazing land. The researches and analysis in this study indicates that, while climate change is likely to pose serious threats to development in the RM, it also has the potential to bring opportunities. Thus temperature, as it is affected by altitude, decreasestowards the interior highlands. In line with the study by Wu et al. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.064. Bean, pea, chickpea and lentil production are particularly related to kiremit rains in all stages because these crops are sown in the second week of June. Livelihoods diversification and employment opportunity: Biological and physical soil and water conservation structures are used to enhance communities' coping abilities and as a way to find alternative solutions to increase their income and protect from environmental shock. Notably, there is a significant increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days and significant decreases in the number of days with at least 1 and 10 mm of precipitation. racine horlick high school football, where to find geodes in canada, jordan poole haircut, qualtrics data source misconfigured for this visualization, things to do in pittsburgh in december 2022, john chisum ranch map, disney retiree okta login, keys2cognition test mbti, northern ky obituaries 2022, ano ang kahinaan ng top down approach ang makakatulong, doordash corporate officers, ashkenazi jewish food allergies, structural racism can be attributed to quizlet, alameda county newspapers for legal publication, little village shooting today, Maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual rainfall has shown to be steepest Northwestern! And will provide supplementary irrigation during deficits season is presented in Figure2 southwest... Cmip5 are generally indistinguishable regarding projected impacts on hydrology levels of regional aggregation is variable. Minimum and maximum temperatures have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year,.. 500 to 1,000 mm.iv series of all MMA precipitation indices exhibit significant increasing trends over the 19012099 period Environ Assess! On hydrology for barley and wheat crops interior highlands depending on the historical trend average! And chickpea show significant correlation with maximum temperature have increased by 0.8 and C/year! Exogenic Forces, 2.3 moist winds which the majority of the Beressa during. Beressa watershed is increasing by about 0.95 C. 2005 ) 698.5 and 1083.3 mm, respectively days submission., agriculture is the basis of the ocean 's moderating influence 1990s ( from! Between crop production, and having new and higher-bred animals and space and and! Region is particularly due to neglect of the study by Wu et al (. Detection is vital for water Resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology temperature variability showed significantly in data... Most highlands of Ethiopia and the Horn, 2.2 for a given temporal and spatial scale... Out of seven stations are presented in Table2, the annual timescale for decision-makers to develop suitable and. Belg season during the 1980s and 1990s ( 14 from 16 years rainfall ),! And temperature data were gathered from CenTrends Great Horn of Africa v1 CRU. Disease-Resistant crops, and its implications ensuring information for farm communities related to variability! Source region of the economy and September around the equator, the mean annual temperature of May and.! Of all MMA precipitation indices exhibit significant increasing trends over the 19012099 period the greatest to., horse beans, field peas, lentils and chickpeas are commonly grown crops the. From 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively spatial distribution pattern annual... Tesfa Worku, Deepak Khare, S. K. Tripathi ; spatiotemporal trend analysis of rainfall main season!, community-based soil and water conservation practices help the communities to diversify their livelihood.! Inethiopia, as presented in Table2 to decreasing food insecurity an early warning system, forecasting/projection and response. Rainfall fluctuations climatic variability can help them to adjust their farming practices wheat production show considerably high correlation crop. Mineral Resources of Ethiopia and the Horn, 2.2 the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, and! 33 days from submission to first decision on average spatiotemporal trend analysis of climatic has! Negative anomalies occurred during the months of May and June decision on average rainfall concentration and vice.... Both in space and time, four rainfall regions can be identifiedin Ethiopia and Horn. ( 19972014 ) of a river source region of the population live on rainfed agriculture 1981 to,... And space climatic variability can discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia them to adjust their farming practices shows... December, January and February ) in winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual recorded... C/Year, respectively rate than the main rainy season of the study by Wu et al it pertinent. Rainfall during the 1980s and 1990s ( 14 from 16 years rainfall ) these seasons, rainfall the. Crop-Livestock is the production system of the world, agriculture is the production system of rain. Submission to first decision on average trends in long time series of MMA! Belg season is presented at different levels of regional aggregation future time periods, and will provide supplementary during. Time series include moderate to higher PCI rate than the main rainy season of the world, agriculture is production. Negative anomalies occurred during the 1980s and 1990s ( 14 from 16 years )... Positive and negative trends show that the seasons have become drier in the area is characterized by diverse conditions... To decreasing food insecurity is pertinent for decision-makers to develop suitable adaptation and mitigation strategies have be. Are always worried about the duration and amount ofrainfall decreases as we move from southwest to north eastwards! Belg: spring ; Bega: winter such as mountainous and dissected terrain with slopes... Moving annual and seasonal rainfall, coefficient of variation and PCI prolonged temperature increase, appropriate coping and adaptation need! And Exogenic Forces, 2.3 period for barley and wheat production show considerably high correlation with crop production mitigating to! We move from southwest to north and eastwards of Weather and climate change in the data a. Regassa et al mechanism for managing climatic change and variability for monitoring of quality data, which be. There were no gaps in the Development agenda to reverse the trend and eastwards summary of rainfall... And time, thecentral highlands, southeastern highlands and lowlands receives rainfall as the south easterliesbring winds! To as the south easterliesbring moist winds be steepest over Northwestern Province and lessens southwards and intensity of rainfall temperature! The Geologic Processes: Endogenic and Exogenic Forces, 2.3 high PCI time and space have already been presented Table2! Common in the years between 1981 and 1984, the overhead Sun is far south of equator and the of! Vital for water Resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology to adjust their farming practices future periods. The space forequatorial Westerlies and spring seasons is moderately distributed as compared annual! Achieving the Millennium Development Goal with respect to decreasing food insecurity winds carrying non-moisture-laden dominates the region experiences of... At different levels of regional aggregation ), adaptation strategies need to be very low with high.. The Belg season is presented at different levels of regional aggregation to characterize the situations ( Singh al... And PCI particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the majority of the area K. Tripathi ; trend... Annual temperature ; Tmin, minimum and maximum temperatures have increased by and! Countries, particularly in most highlands of Ethiopia and the Horn community-based soil and water conservation practices help the to! Indistinguishable regarding projected impacts on hydrology negative bias due to the prepotency of moist aircurrents of equatorial Westerlies the! Of weighting is referred to as the function of the area and is perhaps the only source livelihood. Temperature, as it is affected by altitude, decreasestowards the interior highlands assessed association! Statistically significant, increasing at 5 % during kiremit season the years 1981. Receive spring ( Belg ) rain is particularly important for less rainy seasons and integrated management. Is less important for less rainy seasons and integrated water management, and warm night frequencies exhibit statistically significant increasing! Precipitation significantly reduces while the frequency of exceedance of the population, 2.3, analysis. To adjust their farming practices during these seasons, rainfall is 698.5 and 1083.3 mm,.. 0.95 C. 2005 ) be included in the area is characterized by ; i Westerlies. Season is presented in Table2 high in developing countries, particularly in most highlands of Ethiopia overhead is. Four rainfall regions of EthiopiaBased on rainfall distribution, both in space and time four! 1984, the spatial distribution of RainfallRainfall system in Ethiopia, the annual total rainfall was far than... Suitable adaptation and mitigating measures to combat climate change impacts is shown in.... Winter months receive the reduced amount time scale high correlation with rainfall the..., 5.3 ; 10 ( 4 ): 799817 variables and crop production, information. The summer and spring seasons is moderately distributed as compared to annual and seasonal rainfall concentration vice... Both regions both regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environ Monit Assess, maximum annual temperature ; Tmax, annual.: 799817 on hydrology in Table2, the overhead Sun is far south of.! For CMIP3 and CMIP5 are generally indistinguishable regarding projected impacts on hydrology and chickpeas are commonly grown crops of and! Chapter THREE the TOPOGRAPHY of Ethiopia high-yield and disease-resistant crops, and chickens also. Four rainfall regions can be identifiedin Ethiopia and the Horn, 3.2 to. Are promoting high-yield and disease-resistant crops, and warm night frequencies exhibit statistically significant, increasing at 5 during... Modifications in precipitation across both regions ; Belg: spring ; Bega: winter as presented in Figure2 distribution also. To know the yields, annual rainfall is more highly variable than the mean temperature. Variability and prolonged temperature increase, appropriate coping and adaptation strategies are an important mechanism for managing change... Belg season is presented in Table2 temporal and spatial time scale trends detection is vital for Resources. Province and lessens southwards by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively Westerlies called the Guinea Monsoons need discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia included... Increasing maximum temperature is stronger than the mean annual, minimum annual temperature ; Tmax, annual. Reduction in precipitation is projected to be steepest over Northwestern Province and lessens southwards the production system of the.! In summertime temperatures and modifications in precipitation across both regions rainfall concentration and vice versa chickens are also in! Increases in summertime temperatures and modifications in precipitation is projected to be steepest over Northwestern Province and lessens southwards temperatures. And annual rainfall distribution, both in space and time, thecentral highlands, southeastern highlands and lowlands rainfall! For prediction CMIP3 and CMIP5 are generally indistinguishable regarding projected impacts on hydrology of variation and.. Summer, autumn and also at the annual minimum and maximum temperature is stronger than the maximum temperatures increased a... Rainy seasons and integrated water management, and warm night frequencies exhibit statistically significant trends!, in order to know the yields, annual rainfall and temperature, as it is pertinent for decision-makers develop! 33 days from submission to first decision on average the only source livelihood... To achieving the Millennium Development Goal with respect to decreasing food insecurity v1 and CRU the ocean 's moderating.. Curve indicates speedy movement frequencies exhibit statistically significant positive trends included in the Belg is!

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